Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa817…99f6 politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$12 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$321
14 days−$321
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$331
politics 37% +$67
crypto 7% −$147
sports 3% −$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤30d 1 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤90d 1 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
all 28 -12.4% -20.7% 54% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 25% -11.5%
10% -28.3% 18% -20.0%
15% -35.2% 18% -27.7%
20% -41.6% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$92 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$1,385
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage660d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,370 $1,385 +$15 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $4,766 −$321 -7%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $416 +$437 +105%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? Sep 30 $56 +$199 +354%
Astros vs. Tigers Aug 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? Aug 18 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Padres vs. Giants Aug 14 $472 −$472 -100%
Ethereum above $3,000 on July 21? Jul 21 $262 $0 +0%
Solana above $180 on July 21? Jul 21 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 08 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Virginia rally on Nov 2 Nov 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Virginia rally on Nov 2? Nov 03 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Mars" during Virginia rally on Nov 2? Nov 03 $336 +$33 +10%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov Nov 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "teleprompter" 3 or more times during Wisconsin rally o Nov 02 $135 +$61 +45%
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov Nov 02 $242 +$21 +9%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin"during New Mexico rally on October Nov 01 $430 +$14 +3%
Will Trump say "women's sports" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 30 $67 +$30 +45%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 30 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct Oct 30 $86 +$4 +5%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 30 $126 +$26 +20%
Will Trump say "No income tax" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump say "Catholic" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob Oct 29 $244 +$95 +39%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $3,484 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? Sep 02 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4,445 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $305 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $464 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $446 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $447 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $908 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $355 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $616 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $111 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,385.00 · official $1,385.00 (match) · 184 history records