Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa817…6714 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$658 (+5%) realized +$617 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%43W / 21L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$29
14 days+$86
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$343
politics 25% −$689
culture 13% +$419
sports 11% +$247
tech 10% +$16
economics 4% +$52
world 3% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.3% -17.0% 59% 48% -4.6%
≤30d 47 +24.6% +12.7% 60% 45% -2.2%
≤90d 60 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 47% +4.0%
all 64 +20.7% +9.2% 67% 47% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 47% -5.4%
10% -1.2% 34% -14.4%
15% -10.8% 27% -22.7%
20% -19.5% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$59 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$2,704
Realized+$617
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses43 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)64 / 78
History coverage165d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OKX IPO in 2026? No 78¢ 89¢ $961 $1,092 +$131 (+14%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $730 $695 −$35 (-5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $400 $385 −$15 (-4%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 90¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? Yes 14¢ $112 $48 −$64 (-57%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 52¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Over $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Over $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +26%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +344%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $7 +$17 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$16 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $7 +$80 +1116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$37 +510%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $526 +$16 +3%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $201 +$17 +8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $201 +$20 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $33 38m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $3 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 5d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,703.91 · official $2,704.01 (match) · 196 history records