Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa818…f6ed crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-4%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%182W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$58
14 days+$23
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
world 0% −$12
sports 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.8% -4.2% 95% 8% -3.2%
≤30d 243 -8.1% -16.8% 65% 29% -11.6%
≤90d 305 -13.2% -21.4% 60% 30% -13.2%
all 305 -13.2% -21.4% 60% 30% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 30% -13.2%
10% -29.0% 27% -21.5%
15% -35.8% 25% -29.1%
20% -42.1% 24% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses182 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage89d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 603 history records