Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa819…1f58 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$254 (+10%) realized +$298 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 27L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$250
14 days+$265
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$354
crypto 6% −$16
sports 3% −$46
world 2% −$52
politics 1% −$14
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.9% -24.9% 57% 40% +0.5%
≤30d 62 -13.8% -22.0% 56% 39% +0.6%
≤90d 62 -13.8% -22.0% 56% 39% +0.6%
all 62 -13.8% -22.0% 56% 39% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 39% +0.6%
10% -29.5% 31% -9.0%
15% -36.3% 24% -17.8%
20% -42.5% 16% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage12d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-93%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $451 +$37 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $304 +$146 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -78%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $139 +$61 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$94 +116%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $111 +$62 +56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$54 +57%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $249 +$124 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $451 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $304 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 41h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.11 (match) · 139 history records