Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A8 0xa81b…4d36 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7,903 (+27%) realized +$7,903 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$1,518per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$470est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$5,157

7 days+$2,934

14 days+$5,298

30 days+$5,298

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-43.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-45.2%	-50.4%	24%	24%	+2.0%
≤30d	19	-38.0%	-43.9%	26%	26%	+9.1%
≤90d	19	-38.0%	-43.9%	26%	26%	+9.1%
all	19	-38.0%	-43.9%	26%	26%	+9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-43.9%	26%	+9.1%
10%	-49.3%	26%	-1.3%
15%	-54.2%	26%	-10.8%
20%	-58.7%	21%	-19.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -38% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,036) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -24% → late -50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2,802 vs −$622 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$7,903

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$470

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage10d

Avg bet$1,518

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$202	+$80	+40%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 28	$3,260	+$5,191	+159%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$6,498	−$114	-2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$1,023	−$1,000	-98%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 25	$206	−$200	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 25	$308	−$300	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$3,056	−$3,000	-98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 25	$3,250	−$200	-6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Jun 24	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$104	−$101	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$3,057	+$2,971	+97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$140	−$140	-100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$1,935	−$1,935	-100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$960	−$960	-100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$2,035	+$2,804	+138%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 19	$600	−$600	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$2,036	+$2,964	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	38¢	$3,260	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	SELL Canada	63¢	$3,073	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	65¢	$3,234	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	SELL South Africa	35¢	$3,310	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY South Africa	36¢	$204	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY South Africa	33¢	$2,040	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY South Africa	33¢	$1,020	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	71¢	$202	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	22¢	$1,023	2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	6¢	$206	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	15¢	$308	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	37¢	$3,056	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	SELL No	87¢	$5,096	3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY No	51¢	$3,044	3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	10¢	$104	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	75¢	$6,027	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$3,057	4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	41¢	$2,035	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	15¢	$960	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	7¢	$138	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	7¢	$2	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$1,935	6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	15¢	$461	9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	15¢	$4	9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	15¢	$10	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records