Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa81f…a9b9 crypto 118 markets active 23h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,042 (+4%) realized +$1,042 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%66W / 51L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$248
14 days−$374
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$296
sports 25% +$607
crypto 22% +$547
culture 4% +$74
world 3% +$127
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -73.7%
≤30d 3 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -80.4%
≤90d 14 -7.5% -16.4% 64% 57% -20.8%
all 117 -2.5% -11.7% 56% 41% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 41% -6.1%
10% -20.2% 29% -15.1%
15% -27.9% 16% -23.3%
20% -35.0% 10% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$38 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage238d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 21 $100 −$80 -80%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 18 $250 −$168 -67%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 13 $128 −$126 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $25 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $280 +$110 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 19 $400 −$350 -88%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 17 $170 +$30 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $140 +$58 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $400 +$98 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 15 $500 +$94 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$23 -23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $42 +$58 +138%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $356 +$188 +53%
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? Feb 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 20 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 20 $158 +$40 +25%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 20 $45 −$33 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 18 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 17 $80 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 17 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 14 $94 −$58 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 12 $400 +$100 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 12 $706 +$94 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 12 $279 +$21 +7%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 12 $30 +$14 +47%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 12 $268 +$43 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 12 $180 +$86 +48%
Spurs vs. Hornets Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $95 by end of February? Feb 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 11 $200 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 11 $170 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 11 $278 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 11 $224 +$58 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 11 $17 −$12 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 09 $55 +$44 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 09 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 09 $89 +$6 +7%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Feb 04 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 04 $783 +$9 +1%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Feb 04 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 30 $822 +$192 +23%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $106 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 23h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $81 4d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13 BUY 78¢ $1 9d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $25 45d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $25 45d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $25 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $101 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $176 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $140 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 650 history records