Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa823…6215
crypto · 135 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$29,264 +43%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,542 · open −$60
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199
Realized+$8,542
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses80 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage5d
Avg bet$508
Trades / day637.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,026
7 days+$8,542
14 days+$8,542
30 days+$8,542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $252 $195 −$57 (-23%)
APYX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 93¢ 62¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1,271 +$722 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $296 +$90 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $755 +$244 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1,005 +$581 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $66 +$30 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1,112 +$1,099 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $91 +$71 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $331 +$368 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $570 +$537 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2,965 −$2,965 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,141 −$496 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $648 −$41 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $653 +$238 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1,068 −$44 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1,445 +$654 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $1,111 +$454 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $158 +$92 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $846 +$667 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $792 −$293 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$25 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3,000 −$1,886 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $1,581 −$122 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$32 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$109 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $408 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $255 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $186 +$529 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $340 −$42 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $283 −$88 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$39 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1,305 +$486 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $171 +$146 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $805 −$164 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $719 +$595 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $690 +$865 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $378 +$204 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $147 +$67 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$36 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $254 +$202 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $599 +$1,005 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$8,542
other 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $137 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $231 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +18.1% +6.8% 60% 57% +1.8%
≤30d 134 +18.1% +6.8% 60% 57% +1.8%
≤90d 134 +18.1% +6.8% 60% 57% +1.8%
all 134 +18.1% +6.8% 60% 57% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover637.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 57% +1.8%
10% -3.4% 55% -8.0%
15% ← realistic here -12.7% 51% -16.9%
20% -21.3% 41% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.09 · official $329.09 · 3500 history records