Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa824…d394 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$109 (-0%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$803per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$15
other 17% −$5
politics 15% +$7
economics 8% $0
crypto 4% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -6.0% -14.9% 75% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage258d
Avg bet$803
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? Jun 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 9? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 27 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 27 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? Feb 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? Feb 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 18 $3,408 −$3 -0%
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 18 $3,400 −$3 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $3,421 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? Jan 14 $33 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $4,518 −$5 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 03 $4,535 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 2? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Dec 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 29? Nov 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 25? Oct 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 20? Oct 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $2,013 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $3,956 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 26d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 42d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 47d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 57d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $113 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $39 131d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $28 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $33 156d
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $36 156d
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $3,405 158d
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $3,408 158d
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,397 158d
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,400 158d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,418 158d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,421 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 165d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $4,513 172d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $4,518 172d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4,530 172d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,535 172d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 176d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $58 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.97 · official $54.97 (match) · 80 history records