Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa825…2ef0 crypto 924 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,963 (-14%) realized −$5,884 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate50%579W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$4,759
crypto 34% −$1,250
other 9% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -92.9% -93.5% 6% 3% -80.2%
≤30d 372 -76.9% -79.1% 15% 7% -71.2%
≤90d 1152 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 21% -35.0%
all 1152 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 21% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.1% 21% -35.0%
10% ← realistic here -48.5% 11% -41.2%
15% -53.5% 5% -46.9%
20% -58.0% 3% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$27 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,884
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses579 / 573
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1152 / 924
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 40¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 60¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs NuTorious (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 212.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Game Handicap: Pipsqueak+4 (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs magic (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
First Blood in Game 3? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Misa Esports vs S2G Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 3? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Los Heretics vs LUA Gaming (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group B Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5 Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Dragons Esports vs GnG Amazigh (BO3) - Arabian League Seeding Pha Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Sharks (BO3) - Circuit X Betboom Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
1H Spread: Magic (-6.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $211 −$211 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$22 -436%
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-3.5) Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO1) - Roman Imperium Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Avanti Esport vs GamerLegion (BO1) - Parken Challenger Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-4.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $20 21m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 87¢ $4 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 87¢ $7 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 87¢ $7 37m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $24 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $40 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $12 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 40¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $50 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $24 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $11 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $15 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $40 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $12 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 23¢ $9 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $24 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $40 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $2 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $18 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $4 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $60 7h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 55¢ $6 7h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 65¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records