Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa827…c695 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$4
other 29% −$7
politics 17% $0
sports 9% $0
economics 6% +$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 74 +0.2% -9.4% 39% 1% -9.5%
all 101 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 64
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage341d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 −$3 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $72 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $108 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$5 +13%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $95 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $35 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $29 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.41 · official $35.40 (match) · 391 history records