Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa827…1d36 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$568 (-20%) realized −$539 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$34
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$14
world 33% −$27
politics 20% −$519
tech 7% −$46
sports 2% +$26
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +79.9% +62.8% 100% 100% +19.7%
≤30d 3 +35.1% +22.2% 67% 67% -5.7%
≤90d 4 +25.6% +13.6% 50% 50% -11.2%
all 16 +7.7% -2.6% 44% 44% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 44% -29.9%
10% -11.9% 38% -36.6%
15% -20.4% 31% -42.7%
20% -28.2% 25% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$84 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized−$539
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)16 / 26
History coverage427d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $75 $112 +$37 (+49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $75 $65 −$10 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $19 −$31 (-61%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $91 +$12 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$22 +147%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Mar 28 $950 −$27 -3%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $25 +$41 +163%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Jan 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $25 +$61 +244%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $135 +$44 +32%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $50 +$36 +72%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 11 $35 +$16 +45%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 04 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 29 $214 −$46 -21%
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 29 $90 −$13 -14%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 23 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $76 13m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $38 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 13d
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? SELL No 80¢ $923 88d
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? BUY No 83¢ $950 90d
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes $10 131d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 135d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Djokovic 27¢ $35 144d
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner SELL Djokovic 100¢ $86 145d
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner BUY Djokovic 26¢ $5 145d
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner BUY Djokovic 30¢ $20 145d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 151d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.77 · official $468.24 (match) · 243 history records