Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa829…c72c politics 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%9W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$5
other 20% −$2
sports 14% −$2
crypto 9% −$2
economics 4% +$1
world 4% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 70 -9.8% -18.4% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses9 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage241d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 97¢ 97¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? Feb 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $58 $0 -1%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $1 $0 -20%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $58 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $2 $0 -12%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 26 $1 $0 -25%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $3 $0 -12%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $3 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $53 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $56 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 110d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 112d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 122d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 122d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 124d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 126d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 126d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 129d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 132d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 136d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 138d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 144d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 144d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 145d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 147d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 150d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 151d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.38 · official $53.38 (match) · 248 history records