Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa82b…5220 world 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$92,783 (+45%) realized +$92,414 · open +$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%69W / 98L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,103per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$3,078
politics 3% +$2,879
sports 3% +$924
finance 3% −$802
other 2% +$576
crypto 1% −$302
tech 0% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +48.6% +34.5% 42% 42% -20.1%
≤30d 110 -16.8% -24.7% 34% 29% -13.1%
≤90d 167 -0.9% -10.3% 41% 35% -9.5%
all 167 -0.9% -10.3% 41% 35% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 35% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 25% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.7% 21% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 17% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$470 vs −$338 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2,081
Realized+$92,414
Unrealized+$369
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses69 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions20
Markets (closed)167 / 187
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$1,103
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $283 $575 +$291 (+103%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $344 $477 +$133 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $437 $391 −$45 (-10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Panama 56¢ 83¢ $70 $103 +$33 (+47%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 88¢ $40 $64 +$24 (+61%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 44¢ 42¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 15¢ 26¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+77%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? No 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-44%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-56%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $59 $2 −$58 (-97%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $157 +$64 +40%
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 +925%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$10 -19%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $33 −$32 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$36 -18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$151 +307%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $117 +$58 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 16 $185 −$84 -46%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Jun 16 $315 +$176 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $155 −$77 -50%
Kings vs. Avalanche Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 16 $7,293 +$1,087 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $227 −$222 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 16 $239 −$54 -23%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $260 +$147 +57%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $40 −$8 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $3,346 −$300 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $9,902 +$5,967 +60%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4,596 +$3,103 +68%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 15 $656 −$8 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 15 $5,358 +$1,019 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $27 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $21 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 55¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $21 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 44¢ $41 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $35 2h
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $118 24h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 28h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 37h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,080.72 · official $2,087.75 (match) · 3500 history records