Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A8 0xa82c…cfa4 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$63 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$124
sports 49% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤30d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤90d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -12.3%
all 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 46% -12.3%
10% -26.4% 42% -20.7%
15% -33.6% 38% -28.4%
20% -40.1% 29% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$124 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $141 $138 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $242 −$182 -75%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$19 -19%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $522 +$144 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $385 −$182 -47%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 15 $76 −$1 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$79 +78%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $224 +$208 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $292 +$110 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $133 −$130 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $99 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $230 −$128 -56%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 +$91 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $173 +$28 +16%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$173 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $387 −$269 -70%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $98 +$75 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $344 +$472 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $60 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 18¢ $60 3m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $84 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $83 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $242 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $345 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $344 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $338 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $321 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $329 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $202 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $202 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $78 3h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 46¢ $75 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $180 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 55¢ $101 16h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $202 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $433 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $224 19h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 45¢ $76 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $402 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 72¢ $292 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $133 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.00 · official $68.13 · 63 history records