Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa831…b3ee
crypto · 1041 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$877 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$877 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$877
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses491 / 550
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1041 / 1041
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 0 History 1041 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$22
14 days−$60
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +111%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $24 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$14 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$8 +242%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $15 −$13 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $7 +$5 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$3 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$650
sports 28% −$158
other 11% −$80
world 0% +$10
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 3h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 40h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire BUY Northamptonshire 71¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire SELL Yorkshire 8¢ $2 4d
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire BUY Yorkshire 60¢ $15 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 44% -21.8%
≤30d 143 -28.4% -35.2% 36% 34% -8.4%
≤90d 583 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 47% -8.9%
all 1041 -6.1% -15.0% 47% 45% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 45% -16.6%
10% -23.1% 40% -24.6%
15% -30.6% 33% -31.9%
20% -37.4% 27% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2636 history records