Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa832…1346 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+1%) realized +$105 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$354
14 days+$354
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$178
other 29% −$68
crypto 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 52% -0.4%
≤30d 23 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 52% -0.4%
≤90d 50 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 48% -8.7%
all 50 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 48% -8.7%
10% -17.2% 30% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 22% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$49 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage85d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 74¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $569 −$47 -8%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $192 +$24 +12%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $101 −$81 -80%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $101 +$46 +46%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $101 −$27 -27%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $153 +$103 +68%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $50 −$27 -54%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $20 +$28 +139%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $258 +$67 +26%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $492 +$64 +13%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $353 +$168 +48%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $20 +$16 +78%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $101 +$44 +43%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $241 +$96 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 −$75 -25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $271 +$32 +12%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$15 -76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $10 −$8 -77%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $30 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 06 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 06 $67 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 06 $57 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 06 $53 +$4 +8%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $59 −$5 -8%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $190 −$26 -14%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $45 +$4 +8%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $71 +$11 +15%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 05 $50 +$21 +41%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 05 $44 +$6 +13%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 05 $52 −$7 -14%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $42 +$10 +23%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $329 −$285 -87%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Apr 05 $20 −$12 -58%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $50 −$38 -75%
LoL: SK Gaming vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $354 +$24 +7%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Apr 05 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Angers SCO vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Apr 05 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Getafe CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Apr 05 $43 +$10 +22%
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $294 +$30 +10%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $220 +$74 +34%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? Apr 05 $76 −$55 -73%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $238 +$38 +16%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $199 +$38 +19%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $435 −$112 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 04 $110 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 26¢ $112 33m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 74¢ $335 44m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $335 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 64¢ $216 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Nigma Galaxy 71¢ $215 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 62¢ $192 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $187 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 68¢ $353 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Virtus.pro 12¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 59¢ $101 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $147 18h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 20h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $44 20h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 20h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL ECHO 56¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL ECHO 56¢ $64 20h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 75¢ $101 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $106 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $150 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $51 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $51 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 33¢ $23 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $51 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $50 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $49 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 41¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $325 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 79¢ $242 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 78¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records