Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa832…b819 world 36 markets active 4h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$1
other 19% +$1
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 36 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage485d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $83 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $98 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $44 +$1 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 16 $8 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -35%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 08 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $7 $0 +7%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? Mar 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $46 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $3 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $29 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $14 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $48 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $47 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $50 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records