Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa832…abf8 crypto 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (307 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,944 (-36%) realized −$9,934 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%279W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day307.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,047
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (307 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 45% -31.0%
≤30d 479 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 51% -19.6%
≤90d 479 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 51% -19.6%
all 479 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 51% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover307.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 51% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 28% -27.3%
15% -32.6% 14% -34.3%
20% -39.2% 11% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$39 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$9,934
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses279 / 200
Open positions2
Markets (closed)479 / 481
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day307.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 57¢ 55¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 36¢ 10¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$7 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$27 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$26 +109%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$20 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$15 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $251 +$69 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $88 −$8 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$15 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$15 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $141 +$24 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$11 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$14 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$3 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$18 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$7 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$10 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$6 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.27 · official $48.73 · 3500 history records