Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa836…c6ad other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+11%) realized +$38 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$5
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$30
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 60% -22.3%
≤30d 14 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤90d 14 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 50% +1.4%
all 14 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 50% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 50% +1.4%
10% -27.7% 50% -8.3%
15% -34.7% 43% -17.2%
20% -41.1% 36% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $88 $87 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 62¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 +$54 +51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 −$14 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $89 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $65 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $51 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $60 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $68 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.69 · official $99.69 (match) · 31 history records