Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa837…89f9 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-29%) realized −$113 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$47
sports 24% −$71
other 22% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-60.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -83.6% -85.2% 0% 0% -77.6%
≤30d 2 -83.6% -85.2% 0% 0% -77.6%
≤90d 14 -56.7% -60.8% 29% 14% -50.0%
all 14 -56.7% -60.8% 29% 14% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.8% 14% -50.0%
10% -64.6% 7% -54.8%
15% -68.0% 7% -59.1%
20% -71.1% 7% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage61d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $72 −$48 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 29 $47 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 22 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $87 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $27 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $25 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $23 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $24 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $16 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.32 · official $85.32 (match) · 37 history records