Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa837…fd40 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,698 (+37%) realized +$5,128 · open −$430
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$552
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$5,472
crypto 17% −$111
sports 8% −$182
other 6% −$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 16 -25.5% -32.6% 38% 38% -35.6%
all 22 -2.8% -12.0% 36% 36% +30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 36% +30.8%
10% -20.4% 36% +18.3%
15% -28.1% 32% +6.9%
20% -35.2% 27% -3.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$934) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,229 vs −$334 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$5,128
Unrealized−$430
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage113d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $350 −$50 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 53¢ 58¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 61¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $412 +$269 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $407 +$115 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $309 +$211 +68%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $73 +$58 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $130 −$127 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$174 +86%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 +$178 +180%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $393 −$385 -98%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $766 −$690 -90%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $1,513 −$747 -49%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 03 $1,047 −$523 -50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $934 −$487 -52%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,400 +$505 +36%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,587 +$8,318 +524%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,348 −$828 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $681 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $523 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $130 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $377 9h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $73 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 10h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $99 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.43 · official $602.33 · 65 history records