Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa83d…38de crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (202 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$514 (-20%) realized −$830 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%50W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day201.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (202 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 40% -38.5%
≤30d 103 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 40% -38.5%
≤90d 103 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 40% -38.5%
all 103 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 40% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover201.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 40% -38.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 37% -44.3%
15% -30.1% 37% -49.7%
20% -36.9% 35% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses50 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day201.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $294 −$283 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $148 −$143 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 455 history records