Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa83f…b857 sports 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,248 (-1%) realized −$1,793 · open +$545
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%197W / 156L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1,941est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6,789
14 days+$2,011
30 days−$1,881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$3,594
other 4% +$2,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 33% -0.6%
≤30d 231 -4.1% -13.3% 56% 37% -10.5%
≤90d 232 -4.1% -13.2% 56% 37% -10.5%
all 353 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 36% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 36% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 31% -19.0%
15% -29.6% 27% -26.9%
20% -36.5% 22% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$681) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$323 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$6,820
Realized−$1,793
Unrealized+$545
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses197 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,941
Open positions4
Markets (closed)353 / 357
History coverage207d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $895 $3,600 +$2,705 (+302%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 95¢ 100¢ $1,638 $1,720 +$82 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 97¢ 100¢ $975 $1,009 +$34 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 31¢ 20¢ $775 $488 −$288 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 27¢ 0¢ $1,720 $3 −$1,717 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 19¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,412 −$1,411 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $846 +$40 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $576 −$576 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $960 +$40 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $906 +$811 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,068 +$14 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $312 +$51 +16%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $209 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $855 −$840 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,940 +$60 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,490 −$518 -21%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,677 +$2,770 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,307 −$874 -16%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $23 +$7 +32%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5,669 +$376 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $896 −$896 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,645 −$165 -6%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $502 +$522 +104%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $241 −$241 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) Jun 13 $163 −$161 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,574 +$81 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $612 −$612 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,143 −$640 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,393 +$95 +7%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $397 −$397 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,480 +$2,082 +38%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,715 +$3,780 +220%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,298 +$247 +8%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $914 −$914 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $32 +$15 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,109 +$1,710 +81%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $510 +$208 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $851 −$851 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,761 −$1,761 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $927 −$927 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,531 +$151 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $990 +$110 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,016 +$2,280 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $970 +$29 +3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 12 $814 −$802 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,779 −$1,283 -46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,540 +$4,414 +125%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,180 +$818 +69%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 11 $139 +$111 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 31¢ $278 9m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 31¢ $497 9m
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 92¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $450 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $257 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $275 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $394 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $926 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $488 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $247 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $117 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,820.07 · official $5,537.06 · 2133 history records