Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa848…b25b sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate82%53W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$76
14 days+$98
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$22
other 36% +$77
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.7% -6.2% 90% 35% -8.2%
≤30d 65 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 65 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 34% -9.0%
all 65 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 34% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 22% -17.7%
15% -27.2% 11% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$36 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses53 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)65 / 71
History coverage22d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 98¢ 100¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Canada 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Canada 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 +$40 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$32 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-4.5) Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-5.5) Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$6 +8%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $400 +$1 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $270 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $401 +$25 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $447 +$3 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$24 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $393 +$10 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 +$12 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $60 +$11 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 +$7 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $221 +$3 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $99 +$17 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $64 −$64 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $61 +$3 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $29 +$10 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $55 −$23 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $126 +$29 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $130 +$7 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $101 +$29 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 03 $90 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $11 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $200 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $200 1h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $28 1h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $43 1h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $28 1h
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $27 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $77 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $71 8h
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-4.5) BUY Switzerland 100¢ $8 8h
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-5.5) BUY Switzerland 100¢ $69 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $201 12h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 96¢ $100 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $15 26h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 100¢ $400 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 27h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $300 37h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $200 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 46h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $270 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $100 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $49 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $401 2d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY France 99¢ $447 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $201 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.99 · official $661.99 (match) · 158 history records