Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa84d…bebd crypto 763 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,305 (-4%) realized −$2,336 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%417W / 343L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$1,514
14 days−$2,072
30 days−$2,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,528
crypto 17% −$1,163
other 3% +$233
politics 0% +$43
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -1.9% -11.2% 60% 40% -18.8%
≤30d 264 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 45% -13.5%
≤90d 553 -18.0% -25.9% 49% 37% -14.3%
all 760 -5.4% -14.5% 55% 44% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 44% -12.9%
10% -22.6% 33% -21.2%
15% -30.1% 26% -28.8%
20% -37.0% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$2,336
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses417 / 343
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions3
Markets (closed)760 / 763
History coverage126d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 96¢ $80 $120 +$40 (+50%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 54¢ $86 $73 −$12 (-15%)
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Yes 54¢ 60¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $67 +$20 +29%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $155 −$8 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $222 −$67 -30%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $315 −$93 -29%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $155 −$65 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $200 +$25 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$36 -87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$50 -50%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $376 +$64 +17%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $336 +$39 +12%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $216 +$13 +6%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $57 +$39 +68%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $8 +$3 +35%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $220 −$4 -2%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $51 +$6 +12%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 14 $113 −$13 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $110 +$85 +77%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $199 +$19 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $148 +$161 +109%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $802 −$376 -47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $384 +$137 +36%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $200 +$55 +28%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$32 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $34 −$34 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $26 +$8 +29%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $332 +$173 +52%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $149 +$3 +2%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $118 +$31 +26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $124 −$6 -5%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $42 +$82 +194%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $100 −$61 -61%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $123 −$9 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $116 −$115 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $32 −$22 -70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 +$4 +15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $145 −$143 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $134 +$11 +8%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $125 +$9 +7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $108 +$17 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $735 −$628 -85%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $679 +$57 +8%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $877 −$174 -20%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $641 +$12 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $794 −$299 -38%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $451 +$43 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $87 26m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $87 29m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $67 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $81 1h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Carlos Maria Zarate 82¢ $148 1h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 85¢ $155 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $155 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $222 4h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Calvin Hemery 50¢ $223 4h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 69¢ $315 4h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 43¢ $90 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $225 5h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 72¢ $155 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $5 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $50 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $100 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $200 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 6h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 85¢ $376 11h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 97¢ $376 11h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 86¢ $336 12h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $230 12h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) SELL Tien 99¢ $97 12h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 100¢ $10 12h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 94¢ $216 13h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 97¢ $217 13h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 58¢ $57 13h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone SELL Elizara Yaneva 86¢ $57 13h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Elizara Yaneva 76¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.68 · official $226.68 (match) · 2223 history records