Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa850…f972 crypto 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$564 (-2%) realized −$564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate94%251W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$58
14 days−$106
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$466
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.7% -4.4% 100% 12% -4.5%
≤30d 267 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 17% -11.3%
≤90d 267 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 17% -11.3%
all 267 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 17% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 17% -11.3%
10% -18.3% 1% -19.8%
15% -26.2% 1% -27.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$105 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses251 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage25d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $81 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $80 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records