Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa850…f1ba sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,866 (-9%) realized −$3,866 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$753per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$562
7 days+$562
14 days−$720
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,677
other 4% −$1,195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.5% +65.1% 100% 100% +65.1%
≤30d 6 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 67% +2.5%
≤90d 7 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 57% -3.1%
all 56 -20.6% -28.2% 36% 36% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 36% -18.2%
10% -35.1% 36% -26.0%
15% -41.3% 36% -33.1%
20% -47.1% 36% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$992) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$863 vs −$587 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,866
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage237d
Avg bet$753
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $681 +$562 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $317 +$273 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $586 −$563 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,002 −$992 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $507 +$528 +104%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $1,171 +$756 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $249 −$244 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 18 $740 −$740 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 15 $1,811 +$933 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel Mar 14 $269 −$269 -100%
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 14 $638 −$638 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 14 $911 −$911 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Mar 14 $2,028 −$2,028 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $330 −$330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 14 $1,427 −$1,427 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $212 −$212 -100%
Kings vs. Islanders Mar 13 $2,247 −$1,141 -51%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $174 +$387 +222%
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Mar 13 $504 +$977 +194%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $5,678 +$4,012 +71%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $489 −$489 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 22 $125 +$115 +92%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Feb 22 $308 −$308 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 22 $291 −$291 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $1,173 −$1,173 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Feb 08 $698 −$698 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $999 −$52 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $201 −$201 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) Dec 17 $299 −$299 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Dec 13 $227 −$227 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Dec 13 $423 +$457 +108%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Dec 06 $325 −$325 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Dec 05 $2,497 +$4,251 +170%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner Dec 05 $515 −$515 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Dec 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $1,212 −$1,212 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $477 +$422 +88%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $1,009 +$513 +51%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 05 $90 −$85 -94%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs FaZe (BO3) Nov 26 $232 +$346 +149%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Nov 26 $500 +$460 +92%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Nov 26 $499 +$279 +56%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $60 −$52 -88%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Lynn Vision (BO3) Nov 25 $175 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1) Nov 25 $311 +$560 +180%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs PARIVISION (BO1) Nov 25 $390 +$486 +125%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO1) Nov 24 $977 −$168 -17%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 23 $3,385 −$3,100 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $1,243 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $680 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $317 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $10 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $586 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,001 13d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL paiN 100¢ $1,035 21d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 48¢ $507 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien SELL Flavio Cobolli 100¢ $1,927 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien BUY Flavio Cobolli 60¢ $395 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien BUY Flavio Cobolli 60¢ $776 29d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $249 75d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY FaZe 38¢ $74 102d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY FaZe 37¢ $666 102d
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel BUY Chris Curtis 20¢ $269 105d
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim SELL Vitor Petrino 100¢ $270 105d
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Vitor Petrino 66¢ $1,811 105d
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY SuYoung You 30¢ $638 105d
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Bolaji Oki 28¢ $911 106d
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Brad Tavares 46¢ $651 106d
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Brad Tavares 46¢ $1,377 106d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 24¢ $330 106d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo BUY Astralis 49¢ $1,427 106d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $1,150 106d
Bulls vs. Clippers BUY Bulls 14¢ $1 106d
Bulls vs. Clippers BUY Bulls 14¢ $211 106d
Kings vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 56¢ $35 107d
Kings vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 56¢ $1,106 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records