Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa850…9b11 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,752 (-5%) realized −$1,743 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$759per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$747
sports 49% −$2,814
world 1% +$168
crypto 0% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -14.6%
≤30d 38 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -14.6%
≤90d 38 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -14.6%
all 38 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 34% -14.6%
10% -28.0% 34% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -35.0% 32% -30.2%
20% -41.4% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +40% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,378 vs −$788 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$1,743
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$759
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $396 $394 −$2 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 2¢ 2¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-6%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals No 60¢ 58¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $89 +$53 +60%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5,205 −$5,205 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $93 −$92 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $160 +$100 +62%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $182 −$177 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $120 +$55 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $316 −$314 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $364 −$364 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,482 −$3,429 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,557 +$3,846 +108%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $125 −$123 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 −$118 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $180 −$177 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,133 −$4,133 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,601 +$3,758 +104%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$146 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $94 +$178 +188%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,537 +$2,294 +90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 −$118 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,612 −$1,575 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,732 −$2,679 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $427 +$168 +39%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $428 +$100 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 +$103 +197%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $719 +$7,054 +982%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $172 +$98 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $119 +$102 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $110 −$109 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 2¢ $2 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL No 61¢ $19 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 2¢ $2 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 2¢ $37 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $173 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $116 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $40 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $66 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $2 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $8 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $4 3h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $6 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $157 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $70 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $35 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 81¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 81¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 86¢ $241 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 86¢ $17 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 86¢ $614 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 86¢ $614 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 86¢ $614 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $164 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $164 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $47 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $23 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $13 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $164 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.07 · official $665.07 (match) · 357 history records