Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa852…5730 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,192 (+31%) realized +$1,101 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$1,201
14 days+$1,201
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$1,035
sports 30% +$283
crypto 1% −$28
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 47% +22.8%
≤30d 43 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 47% +22.8%
≤90d 43 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 47% +22.8%
all 43 +13.3% +2.5% 60% 47% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 47% +22.8%
10% -7.3% 40% +11.0%
15% -16.3% 23% +0.3%
20% -24.5% 21% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$2 · ×21.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.2 per $1 lost it wins $32.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$1,101
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage25d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? No 50¢ 100¢ $93 $184 +$91 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $12 +$2 +15%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $178 +$42 +24%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 +$17 +41%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $99 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 $0 +15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $7 +$2 +32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $515 +$79 +15%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $335 +$96 +28%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $97 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $624 +$46 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $653 +$168 +26%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $36 +$12 +32%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $269 +$5 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $65 +$83 +128%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 +$569 +284%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +352%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $62 +$80 +129%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $25 25m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $77 25m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $29 25m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 51¢ $53 25m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 53¢ $30 31m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 53¢ $11 31m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 53¢ $5 31m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 53¢ $65 31m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $23 32m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $24 32m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $18 32m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 54¢ $17 34m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 54¢ $17 34m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 54¢ $51 34m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 55¢ $0 34m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 41¢ $5 40m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 41¢ $17 40m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 51¢ $26 40m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 51¢ $255 40m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 51¢ $229 40m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL No 72¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 71¢ $1 51m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 74¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 74¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 61¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 74¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL No 88¢ $219 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 71¢ $178 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 73¢ $33 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.27 · official $184.27 (match) · 396 history records