Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa852…d55d crypto 860 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$4,949 (-69%) realized −$590 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%479W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day412.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$465
other 10% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 860 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 40% -16.9%
≤30d 860 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 40% -16.9%
≤90d 860 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 40% -16.9%
all 860 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 40% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover412.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 40% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 26% -24.9%
15% -34.7% 15% -32.2%
20% -41.1% 7% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$590
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses479 / 381
Open positions0
Markets (closed)860 / 860
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day412.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 860 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +35%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$5 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$3 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$10 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$10 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$13 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records