Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa858…1b51 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$915 (+15%) realized +$817 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$541
other 21% +$495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.4% -2.8% 78% 78% +5.4%
≤30d 9 +7.4% -2.8% 78% 78% +5.4%
≤90d 9 +7.4% -2.8% 78% 78% +5.4%
all 9 +7.4% -2.8% 78% 78% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 78% +5.4%
10% -12.1% 67% -4.7%
15% -20.6% 44% -13.9%
20% -28.4% 22% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$295 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$817
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $325 $421 +$96 (+30%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $215 +$112 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $595 +$385 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $864 +$223 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $153 +$64 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $113 +$43 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,747 +$372 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,417 +$329 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $496 −$491 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $327 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $215 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $595 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $864 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 70¢ $153 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 72¢ $113 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $38 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $1,709 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1,417 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $496 5d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 6d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 6d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.46 · official $439.46 (match) · 21 history records