Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa859…fdb5 other 526 markets active 0h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,947 (-6%) realized −$3,945 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%305W / 211L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$543
7 days+$573
14 days+$590
30 days+$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1,253
sports 40% −$2,584
crypto 1% +$18
world 0% −$310
finance 0% −$5
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +8.8% -1.6% 62% 60% -3.3%
≤30d 180 -0.4% -9.9% 61% 56% -3.6%
≤90d 412 -3.1% -12.4% 58% 52% -13.5%
all 516 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 52% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 52% -14.9%
10% -21.8% 46% -23.1%
15% -29.3% 38% -30.5%
20% -36.3% 31% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$105 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$3,945
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses305 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions7
Markets (closed)516 / 526
History coverage622d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $13 −$4 (-22%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 77¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$123 +121%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$156 +153%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$43 +43%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 +$102 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,206 +$307 +25%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $902 +$87 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$40 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 Jun 14 $101 −$21 -20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,102 +$133 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $98 +$102 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots Jun 12 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $753 +$114 +15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $99 +$46 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$79 +78%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$7 -13%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Oracle say "Growth" during earnings call? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23m
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 26m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 59¢ $101 49m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $79 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $21 19h
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 84¢ $167 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $102 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $102 27h
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $0 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 45h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $185 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 79¢ $200 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 79¢ $1,006 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.36 · official $513.31 · 929 history records