Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa859…48b9 sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,418 (+8%) realized +$1,174 · open +$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8,760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$701
7 days−$438
14 days−$591
30 days−$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,973
sports 32% +$1,588
world 15% +$1,230
crypto 1% −$102
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +31.0% +18.5% 71% 71% -14.0%
≤30d 77 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 52% -19.2%
≤90d 83 +2.1% -7.6% 51% 51% -5.2%
all 83 +2.1% -7.6% 51% 51% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 51% -5.2%
10% -16.5% 46% -14.3%
15% -24.5% 40% -22.6%
20% -31.9% 33% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$134 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$8,760
Realized+$1,174
Unrealized+$244
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions19
Markets (closed)83 / 102
History coverage86d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $1,180 $1,392 +$211 (+18%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 70¢ $930 $1,211 +$281 (+30%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 70¢ $206 $264 +$58 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $180 $193 +$13 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $197 $190 −$7 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $143 $148 +$6 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 92¢ $106 $125 +$20 (+19%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 30¢ $114 $71 −$42 (-37%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $82 $68 −$14 (-18%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+52%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $569 +$536 +94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $385 +$328 +85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,091 −$54 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $104 +$43 +42%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $111 +$82 +74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$143 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $359 +$94 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $528 +$215 +41%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $429 +$331 +77%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 17 $8 −$17 -198%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $316 +$105 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$68 +136%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $84 −$82 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $99 −$98 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $536 −$223 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $146 −$7 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 +$315 +384%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $951 +$734 +77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $228 −$226 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $239 −$235 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,620 −$2,592 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $67 −$67 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $18 −$8 -48%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $8 +$10 +118%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $49 +$36 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $7 +$4 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $9 +$4 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $9 +$4 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $8 +$5 +55%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $9 +$6 +67%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $9 +$6 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$9 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Pla Jun 15 $15 +$10 +70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$9 +28%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 15 $16 +$21 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $93 11m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $97 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $103 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $106 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 55m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $116 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $118 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $122 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $78 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $77 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $84 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $118 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $124 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $85 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $122 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $128 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $122 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $132 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $141 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $130 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $144 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $150 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $160 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $96 5h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $202 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $170 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $176 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $174 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $187 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $95 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,760.30 · official $8,758.88 (match) · 424 history records