Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa85a…b05b weather 393 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%187W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$10
other 15% $0
world 8% +$4
tech 4% −$9
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 3% -11.9%
≤30d 247 -3.9% -13.1% 76% 3% -14.8%
≤90d 247 -3.9% -13.1% 76% 3% -14.8%
all 247 -3.9% -13.1% 76% 3% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 3% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 2% -23.0%
15% -29.0% 1% -30.4%
20% -36.0% 1% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses187 / 60
Open positions146
Markets (closed)247 / 393
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 146 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 89¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 91¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 98¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 71¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 20? SELL No 92¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.39 · official $276.40 (match) · 696 history records