Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa85b…e1e8 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$3
politics 25% $0
other 16% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -10.0%
all 52 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage297d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $7 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $41 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $38 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $44 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $46 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.94 · official $40.96 (match) · 181 history records