Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa85d…479e weather 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%30W / 23L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% $0
tech 36% +$6
other 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 53 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage120d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 27 $278 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 30 $416 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $177 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $72 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 27 $123 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 19? Apr 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11? Apr 12 $128 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? Apr 10 $123 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5? Apr 07 $135 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 29? Mar 30 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 28? Mar 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 25? Mar 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 24? Mar 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? Mar 24 $151 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 20? Mar 20 $123 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 19 $362 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 14 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $461 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or higher on March 12? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11? Mar 11 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10? Mar 10 $236 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $235 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? Mar 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6? Mar 07 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4? Mar 05 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3? Mar 04 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 3? Mar 04 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2? Mar 03 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2? Mar 03 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $126 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $125 3d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $152 7d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $153 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $140 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 17d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 19d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 20d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $139 22d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $139 23d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $187 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $187 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $182 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $182 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $111 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $111 32d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 33d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 34d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 35d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 35d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $123 35d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $123 37d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $113 40d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $113 41d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 55d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 57d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 59d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records