Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa860…b2cf crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-13%) realized −$177 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$102
crypto 36% −$17
other 13% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 44% -22.4%
≤30d 64 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 44% -22.4%
≤90d 64 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 44% -22.4%
all 64 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 44% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 44% -22.4%
10% -31.3% 42% -29.8%
15% -37.9% 39% -36.6%
20% -44.0% 25% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$8 +54%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$23 +75%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $71 +$74 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$32 +158%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$1 -7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$7 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$10 +61%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $82 −$48 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$34 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$10 +66%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 +$20 +96%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +45%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$9 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$13 -83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$29 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$22 +137%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$23 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $53 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $46 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $31 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $71 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 61¢ $41 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $51 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $23 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 44h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $36 44h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 14¢ $34 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $22 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.09 · official $91.51 (match) · 104 history records