Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa861…a2a7 sports 1003 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-4%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%496W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day94.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$16
14 days+$17
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$80
other 22% −$59
world 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.2% -3.0% 38% 38% +10.9%
≤30d 988 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 42% -14.9%
≤90d 988 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 42% -14.9%
all 988 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 42% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 42% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 35% -23.0%
15% -30.0% 25% -30.5%
20% -36.8% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses496 / 492
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions15
Markets (closed)988 / 1003
History coverage26d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day94.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 988 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 74¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 77¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 85¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner ex-Zero Tenacity 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 69¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Will IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $2 +$2 +95%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $2 +$1 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta May 27 $2 −$1 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $2 +$2 +84%
Chisinau: Sumit Nagal vs Zdenek Kolar May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $2 +$3 +140%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $2 +$1 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $2 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner May 27 $2 $0 -14%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova May 27 $1 $0 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Henri Squire May 27 $2 $0 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Snigur vs Peyton Stearns May 27 $2 +$1 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Chisinau: Lorenzo Giustino vs Luca Nardi May 27 $2 +$1 +32%
Chisinau: Elias Ymer vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri May 27 $2 +$1 +47%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic May 27 $2 +$1 +56%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Stefan Dostanic May 27 $1 $0 +48%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw? May 27 $2 $0 +23%
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 27 $1 $0 +26%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 25m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.42 · official $93.46 (match) · 3500 history records