Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa861…e4ae sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+13%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%51W / 96L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$15
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$1
weather 26% +$4
other 13% $0
politics 6% −$5
crypto 6% +$19
world 3% +$4
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +33.3% +20.6% 43% 43% +26.0%
≤30d 147 +10.9% +0.3% 35% 31% +0.7%
≤90d 147 +10.9% +0.3% 35% 31% +0.7%
all 147 +10.9% +0.3% 35% 31% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 31% +0.7%
10% -9.3% 29% -8.9%
15% -18.0% 28% -17.7%
20% -26.1% 25% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses51 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)147 / 152
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+181%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 40¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +122%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +158%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +259%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +190%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$5 +474%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 +$2 +180%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$6 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +246%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -30%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $1 1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 15h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $1 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.34 · official $6.34 (match) · 263 history records