Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa863…6327
politics · 66 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$15 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage312d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 0 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $7 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Dec 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $3 $0 -17%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $35 +$16 +47%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $82 −$13 -15%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 20 $1 $0 -34%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +8%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $2 $0 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 23 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$11
other 28% +$4
politics 19% $0
sports 6% −$1
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $32 32m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $19 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $32 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $21 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $20 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $41 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $40 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 18% -7.0%
≤30d 11 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 18% -7.0%
≤90d 11 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 18% -7.0%
all 66 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -8.4%
10% -18.3% 3% -17.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records