Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa864…3834 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-4%) realized −$17 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$50
sports 19% −$57
world 8% −$100
other 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -17.8% -25.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
≤30d 28 -17.8% -25.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
≤90d 28 -17.8% -25.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
all 28 -17.8% -25.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 29% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 29% -33.5%
15% -39.3% 25% -39.9%
20% -45.2% 25% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$40 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 42¢ 28¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $94 +$245 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $147 −$145 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$21 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$89 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$81 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $137 +$44 +32%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 +$72 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $147 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.09 · official $37.42 · 67 history records