Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa867…71ab crypto 1597 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$564 (-2%) realized −$564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate78%1240W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$59
14 days−$131
30 days−$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$366
crypto 14% −$141
other 2% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 433 -8.2% -17.0% 72% 46% -15.0%
≤30d 1225 -5.7% -14.7% 73% 54% -28.6%
≤90d 1597 -3.5% -12.7% 78% 45% -11.6%
all 1597 -3.5% -12.7% 78% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 45% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 25% -20.1%
15% -28.7% 11% -27.8%
20% -35.7% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1240 / 357
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1597 / 1597
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1597 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records