Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa86b…5ca7 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$21
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$22
politics 23% −$12
sports 18% −$22
culture 8% −$6
economics 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$8
world 4% −$1
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 64 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.6% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 138 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 126
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage102d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $51 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $118 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $96 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $44 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $238 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 6h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 6h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 10h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $54 11h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $54 18h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $60 18h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $60 22h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $37 23h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $37 30h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $39 31h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $40 37h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $58 37h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $58 41h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $21 42h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $21 46h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 47h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $64 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $65 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 91¢ $49 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 513 history records