Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa86d…0fd2 weather 537 markets active 6d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%159W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$17
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% +$26
sports 15% −$29
other 2% +$6
politics 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$9
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +83.8% +66.3% 55% 55% +64.8%
≤30d 139 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 28% -5.7%
≤90d 525 -7.1% -15.9% 30% 27% -9.4%
all 525 -7.1% -15.9% 30% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 27% -9.4%
10% -24.0% 26% -18.0%
15% -31.3% 26% -26.0%
20% -38.0% 25% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses159 / 366
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)525 / 537
History coverage62d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Natural Disaster in 2026? No 72¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 297 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$10 +304%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +257%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$9 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$8 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$8 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$8 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$7 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$7 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$8 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$8 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$8 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$8 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$9 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$9 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.94 · official $27.93 (match) · 854 history records