Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa86f…022c weather 570 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,637 (-4%) realized −$2,479 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate64%330W / 186L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day100.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$6
other 20% −$282
weather 18% −$14
world 8% −$21
culture 4% −$54
tech 4% −$61
sports 3% −$4
economics 2% +$3
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -4.9% -14.0% 65% 2% -9.7%
≤30d 502 +1.7% -8.0% 64% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 516 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 5% -9.9%
all 516 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 5% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3,038
Realized−$2,479
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses330 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions53
Markets (closed)516 / 570
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$125
Trades / day100.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $187 $187 −$1 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 93¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 84¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $167 $165 −$3 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $152 $153 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 100¢ 82¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $72 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 94¢ 95¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-2%)
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? No 98¢ 92¢ $74 $69 −$4 (-6%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 97¢ 96¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.2B? No 98¢ 50¢ $93 $48 −$46 (-49%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 97¢ 92¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Jun 16 $49 −$28 -57%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 16 $271 −$74 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 16 $193 −$20 -10%
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Serie Jun 16 $49 +$38 +76%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -10%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $197 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $368 −$3 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $48 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $397 +$36 +9%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $49 $0 +1%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $194 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $172 −$32 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $247 −$3 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $421 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $79 16m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $188 28m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $160 29m
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 11¢ $5 35m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $162 1h
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? SELL No 37¢ $10 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL No 28¢ $27 1h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $184 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 3h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 3h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 3h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 93¢ $93 3h
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Serie SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 4h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,038.16 · official $3,038.13 (match) · 3500 history records