Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa872…6cef crypto 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$188 (-6%) realized −$457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%139W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$417
14 days−$457
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$422
sports 8% −$15
weather 7% −$13
other 4% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -25.0% -32.1% 33% 25% -27.2%
≤30d 409 -22.4% -29.8% 34% 26% -23.9%
≤90d 409 -22.4% -29.8% 34% 26% -23.9%
all 409 -22.4% -29.8% 34% 26% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 26% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 20% -31.2%
15% -42.7% 15% -37.8%
20% -48.3% 12% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses139 / 270
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)409 / 409
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$6 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $23 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$9 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$7 +210%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$17 +635%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -83%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 58m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 4¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $3 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $40 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $12 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1104 history records