Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A8 0xa873…5149 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$61 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate96%23W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$25
sports 11% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 38% -6.0%
≤30d 24 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 38% -6.0%
≤90d 24 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 38% -6.0%
all 24 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 38% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 38% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 17% -15.0%
15% -20.3% 8% -23.2%
20% -28.1% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.59 per $1 lost it wins $10.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses23 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 97¢ 52¢ $107 $57 −$50 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $94 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $69 +$12 +18%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $64 +$7 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $107 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $94 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $94 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 35m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $94 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.81 · official $106.45 · 55 history records