Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa875…9f99 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$443 (-6%) realized −$450 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days+$98
14 days+$74
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$141
sports 9% −$281
economics 1% +$110
crypto 0% −$12
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 36% +8.3%
≤30d 41 -15.6% -23.6% 37% 37% -0.9%
≤90d 103 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 42% -18.3%
all 109 -7.5% -16.3% 45% 45% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 45% -13.6%
10% -24.3% 44% -21.8%
15% -31.6% 38% -29.4%
20% -38.3% 32% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$48 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$450
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 60
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 120
History coverage114d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Federico Valverde: 2+ shots Yes 52¢ 57¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$74 +242%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $20 +$26 +129%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$49 +97%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 22 $20 +$15 +76%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 +$63 +206%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $20 +$35 +171%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $46 +$67 +146%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $10 +$17 +175%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $91 −$90 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $504 +$163 +32%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 09 $45 −$45 -99%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Federico Valverde: 2+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 30¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 50¢ $102 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 44h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 57¢ $101 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $31 4d
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $41 4d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 32¢ $31 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a BUY 16¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 30¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.83 · official $156.62 · 266 history records