Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa877…2e20 sports 1416 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,978 (-11%) realized −$12,929 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%672W / 721L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day73.8pace
Fees−$1,482est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,374
other 15% −$2,498
crypto 0% −$225
world 0% +$48
weather 0% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 48% -18.6%
≤30d 1295 -2.9% -12.2% 46% 46% -14.6%
≤90d 1393 +1.7% -8.0% 48% 48% -9.8%
all 1393 +1.7% -8.0% 48% 48% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 48% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -18.4%
15% -24.8% 45% -26.3%
20% -32.2% 43% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$75 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$12,929
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses672 / 721
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,482
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1393 / 1416
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day73.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 40¢ $191 $136 −$55 (-29%)
Poznan (Doubles): Berkieta/Kasnikowski vs Kielan/Romios Berkieta/Kasnikowski 26¢ 34¢ $75 $97 +$22 (+29%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 56¢ 56¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Raphael Collignon 54¢ 55¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 46¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 66¢ 54¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $25 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 51¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 37¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-28%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 52¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+61%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 55¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+28%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 60¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 48¢ 78¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+61%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Shintaro Mochizuki 54¢ 61¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $114 +$74 +65%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $3 +$3 +73%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $153 +$188 +124%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $179 +$148 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $3 +$3 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $2 +$4 +156%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $3 +$3 +127%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $80 −$3 -3%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $2 +$4 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open (Doubles): Bellucci/Kyrgios vs Quinn/Tien Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $77 +$138 +180%
Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Tabata (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$3 +109%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $77 +$80 +105%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $3 +$3 +104%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $68 +$175 +257%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Kyrgios Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $2 +$3 +216%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +113%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $2 11m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 56¢ $97 41m
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 54¢ $1 43m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 17¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $76 1h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 54¢ $3 1h
Poznan (Doubles): Berkieta/Kasnikowski vs Kielan/Romios BUY Berkieta/Kasnikowski 26¢ $72 1h
Poznan (Doubles): Berkieta/Kasnikowski vs Kielan/Romios BUY Berkieta/Kasnikowski 26¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 54¢ $87 2h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Alexandrova 43¢ $2 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $3 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $2 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $3 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $3 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $2 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $3 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 18h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 18h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $179 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $153 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $153 19h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $3 19h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $2 20h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $3 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $3 20h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 20h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 57¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.71 · official $669.11 (match) · 3500 history records