trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 7 | -11.1% | -19.5% | 29% | 29% | -37.9% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 25% | 25% | -27.1% |
| all | 8 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 25% | 25% | -27.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.1% | 25% | -27.1% |
| 10% | -26.8% | 12% | -34.1% |
| 15% | -33.9% | 12% | -40.4% |
| 20% | -40.4% | 12% | -46.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 82¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Ethereum ETF Flows on May 27? | May 28 | $1 | +$1 | +76% |
| Ethereum ETF Flows on May 26? | May 27 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21? | May 22 | $4 | −$2 | -47% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 18 | $12 | −$1 | -7% |